LCS Preview
So, my original picks were 50% correct. As long as you don't count # of games. Which I won't, because then I would have been 0% right, and you'd all lose total faith in my credibility, which does no one any good. So 50% it is.
My original World Series pick was St. Louis over LA in 6, but that may now change given how weak the Angels will be going into Chicago, and how rested the White Sox are. The White Sox, after disposing of us like yesterday's papers, have had 3 restful days to sit back and await the winner of the Angels/Yankees series; what's more, they didn't even need to worry about travel, having secured home field advantage throughout. They've had time to set their rotation (Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, presumably), while the Angels have massive question marks behind Game 1 starter Paul Byrd; John Lackey is their only other healthy playoff starter, as Jarrod Washburn has been sidelined with strep throat for days, and Bartolo Colon left yesterday's game early with shoulder issues. Rookie Ervin Santana is presumably unavailable to start, having thrown 5 or 6 innings of solid relief work last night. Lackey would be going on short rest for the second straight start, and though he handled it quite well the first time, it's hard to believe he could do so a second, or that the Angels would ask him to. My personal bet is that either Washburn starts the game, or Scoscia does something out there, like give Shields and Escobar three innings apiece to start it off and then turn to the rest of the pen. Both Shields and Escobar have had starting experience. This series could get very ugly by Game 2, and there's a legitimate possibility that the White Sox will host an NL team before experiencing their first loss this postseason. I'd be willing to bet they lose 1 game, and that it will be game 3.
Prediction: White Sox in 5
Over in the NL, a similar situation, but with different results. The Astros had to stretch themselves to the limit to win their LDS with Atlanta, resulting in a truly epic game that's now being talked about as one of the all-time great games ever played. Brandon Backe and Roger Clemens both pitched multiple innings, Clemens on two days of rest with absolutely no room for error. St. Louis, meanwhile, has been able to sit back for two days at home, awaiting the winner. Nevertheless, there are significant questions about their health; Chris Carpenter was forced to leave Game 1 to nurse a cramped pitching hand, while in Game 2 Mark Mulder was struck by a line drive above his pitching elbow. Carpenter is scheduled to pitch Game 1 of the NLCS, which suggests that the Cardinals' staff feels he's healthy; Mulder had significant soreness in his arm postgame, but has also had some time to rest it. The Astros, meanwhile, managed to avoid gutting their rotation despite the eighteen inning marathon; Andy Pettitte will start Game 1 of the series on Wednesday, while presumably Game 2 will see Roy Oswalt on normal rest. Clemens should be penciled in for Game 3. The more I look at this series, the more it's a toss-up for me; I suppose I'm rooting for the Stros as much as I'll root for anyone in this final four, but it's tough to put anything down against the Cards, who remain the most balanced and dangerous club left in either league.
Prediction: Cardinals win Games 1, 4, 5, and 7; Astros win 2, 3, and 6. Cardinals in 7.
That would give us a World Series of Cardinals vs. White Sox; the most interesting question there becomes whether the Cubs-Cards rivalry extends to the Cubs' spurned little brother on the South Side. The Cards and White Sox are the two most balanced teams left; both have excellent pitching, though the White Sox hold an advantage in that category. The Cardinals have the edge in hitting, though I learned not to underestimate a White Sox team that is at its best when it's focusing on it's real strength: power. However, they never really seem to do that, and matching 'wits' with Tony LaRussa could drive anyone to double steal.
World Series Prediction: Cardinals in 6.
Lest you think, by the way, that I've forgotten to laugh at the Yanks, I haven't. I just choose to dismiss them. They were as flawed as we were in the end, and they got exactly what they deserved. Here's hoping there's carnage in the Bronx this offseason.
Also, a touch of news to report: the Herald (via Rotoworld) today suggested that talks with Mike Timlin over a contract extension are already underway, and that a deal could be finalized quite soon. Though I do think that Timlin's surface numbers were misleading given his peripherals, and that he'll see some decline next year, I'd be more than happy to see him come back as both a pitcher and as a mentor to what will likely be a fairly young pen for the Red Sox in '06.
Also, this is funny as hell, from a blog that's funny as hell (Yard-Work.org).


Rooting for CHI gives me more trouble because of Ozzie and his big mouth - in fact it would be more of an honor to lose to the eventual champ. But still I don't like Ozzie.
As for Soriano - I would think that is definitely not the best use of Mr. Henry's capital. As noted, he does not get on base. He strikes out a lot. His defense is marginal at best. And next year will be his first on the wrong side of 30. All for the arbitration price of about $10 MM.
I would rather sign Damon for the same $10MM (although the 5 years scares me.) And play Pedroia at 2B. And keep the younger arms.
Or take a flyer on Milton Bradley in CF for a year - maybe the veteran leadership in the Sox clubhouse could keep his head on straight.
Or if you want to make a splash then go after Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey. (Comment this)
Damon in 5 years will make Bernie this year look like Tris Speaker. All indicators say he's on his way down, and it won't be pretty. I strongly doubt he'll be back next season. It'll need to be a trade to fill that spot; the FA market is barren. (Comment this)
As for Damon, what I meant to write was not that five years scares, but that I wouldn't do it. The only way Damon stays is if they get creative in the contract - maybe first three years guaranteed and then vesting based on plate appearances or games played. And that would be if Damon really wants to stay here. Otherwise, sayanora. The only thing I will take exception to is the statement "All indicators say he's on his way down" - I mean the guy was hurt and played through it. Even with the tail off in the second half he matched his career production. But through and through, the trade market is likely the way to go until they can groom Hanley or Pedroia or David Murphy....
Maybe the Sox can drive up the price on Matsui and take a (pseudo) run at him.
(Comment this)
I will concede that he might be slipping but I do think he has a couple of good years in him. This year was an abomination from the very start. The first series in TOR he ran into that new video wall and cut up his arm. Then he injured his shoulder in june diving against (I think) TB. Finally in SEP he hurt his shoulder again diving back into second and ended up taking two cortisone shots. For the most part he played through it all. And after hearing Francona (and others) say all year that he is the toughest guy he has ever seen, I'm inclined to believe them. Plus I don't think Damon has been on the DL in his entire career. His career low in games played is 145 (so maybe he was on the 15 day DL).
I think the Sox should explore a creative contract - three guaranteed years. Fourth year vests with 600 PA in either 2007 or 2008 and fifth year vests with 600 PA in 2008 or 2009. I know that is tricky and you set yourself up for griping about playing time....
(Comment this)
.225
.302
.283
.312
.236
His IsoP:
.107
.157
.132
.172
.123
One year jumps out, and that was last year. Spikes in both SecA and IsoP, to go along with a .477 SLG and career high 20 homers. Even his OBP last year was a significant deviation from surrounding years. Damon had an absolute career year last year, after three years of good but not great performance and before one year of very good but then injury-filled performance. He was maybe worth the money he's about to get over the last 4 years - maybe. He certainly won't be worth it over the next 4. For next year, he might be good. I don't think he'll be incredibly impressive, I think he'll miss time, I think he'll continue to see slides in his power and OBP. I think his patience isn't what it used to be either. But even were all of that untrue, will he still be good in 2007? 2008? ages 33 and 34, when even the best leadoff hitters decline? Even Rickey Henderson never had another great year after 34. Is Damon, who had to have three cortisone shots in his shoulder this year and is perenially banged up anyway going to look more like Rickey Henderson at age 34, or like Bernie Williams? I'd bet the latter, by quite a bit. (Comment this)