October 11, 2005

LCS Preview

So, my original picks were 50% correct.  As long as you don't count # of games.  Which I won't, because then I would have been 0% right, and you'd all lose total faith in my credibility, which does no one any good.  So 50% it is.

My original World Series pick was St. Louis over LA in 6, but that may now change given how weak the Angels will be going into Chicago, and how rested the White Sox are.  The White Sox, after disposing of us like yesterday's papers, have had 3 restful days to sit back and await the winner of the Angels/Yankees series; what's more, they didn't even need to worry about travel, having secured home field advantage throughout.  They've had time to set their rotation (Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, presumably), while the Angels have massive question marks behind Game 1 starter Paul Byrd; John Lackey is their only other healthy playoff starter, as Jarrod Washburn has been sidelined with strep throat for days, and Bartolo Colon left yesterday's game early with shoulder issues.  Rookie Ervin Santana is presumably unavailable to start, having thrown 5 or 6 innings of solid relief work last night.  Lackey would be going on short rest for the second straight start, and though he handled it quite well the first time, it's hard to believe he could do so a second, or that the Angels would ask him to.  My personal bet is that either Washburn starts the game, or Scoscia does something out there, like give Shields and Escobar three innings apiece to start it off and then turn to the rest of the pen.  Both Shields and Escobar have had starting experience.  This series could get very ugly by Game 2, and there's a legitimate possibility that the White Sox will host an NL team before experiencing their first loss this postseason.  I'd be willing to bet they lose 1 game, and that it will be game 3.
Prediction: White Sox in 5

Over in the NL, a similar situation, but with different results.  The Astros had to stretch themselves to the limit to win their LDS with Atlanta, resulting in a truly epic game that's now being talked about as one of the all-time great games ever played.  Brandon Backe and Roger Clemens both pitched multiple innings, Clemens on two days of rest with absolutely no room for error.  St. Louis, meanwhile, has been able to sit back for two days at home, awaiting the winner.  Nevertheless, there are significant questions about their health; Chris Carpenter was forced to leave Game 1 to nurse a cramped pitching hand, while in Game 2 Mark Mulder was struck by a line drive above his pitching elbow.  Carpenter is scheduled to pitch Game 1 of the NLCS, which suggests that the Cardinals' staff feels he's healthy; Mulder had significant soreness in his arm postgame, but has also had some time to rest it.  The Astros, meanwhile, managed to avoid gutting their rotation despite the eighteen inning marathon; Andy Pettitte will start Game 1 of the series on Wednesday, while presumably Game 2 will see Roy Oswalt on normal rest.  Clemens should be penciled in for Game 3.  The more I look at this series, the more it's a toss-up for me; I suppose I'm rooting for the Stros as much as I'll root for anyone in this final four, but it's tough to put anything down against the Cards, who remain the most balanced and dangerous club left in either league.
Prediction: Cardinals win Games 1, 4, 5, and 7; Astros win 2, 3, and 6.  Cardinals in 7.

That would give us a World Series of Cardinals vs. White Sox; the most interesting question there becomes whether the Cubs-Cards rivalry extends to the Cubs' spurned little brother on the South Side.  The Cards and White Sox are the two most balanced teams left; both have excellent pitching, though the White Sox hold an advantage in that category.  The Cardinals have the edge in hitting, though I learned not to underestimate a White Sox team that is at its best when it's focusing on it's real strength: power.  However, they never really seem to do that, and matching 'wits' with Tony LaRussa could drive anyone to double steal.
World Series Prediction: Cardinals in 6.

Lest you think, by the way, that I've forgotten to laugh at the Yanks, I haven't.  I just choose to dismiss them.  They were as flawed as we were in the end, and they got exactly what they deserved.  Here's hoping there's carnage in the Bronx this offseason.

Also, a touch of news to report: the Herald (via Rotoworld) today suggested that talks with Mike Timlin over a contract extension are already underway, and that a deal could be finalized quite soon.  Though I do think that Timlin's surface numbers were misleading given his peripherals, and that he'll see some decline next year, I'd be more than happy to see him come back as both a pitcher and as a mentor to what will likely be a fairly young pen for the Red Sox in '06.

Also, this is funny as hell, from a blog that's funny as hell (Yard-Work.org).

Posted by 12eight at 12:43:14 | Permanent Link | Comments (25) |
Comments
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1 - i'm not sure who i'm rooting for. i am pretty sure i'm not rooting for the white sox, i can't really support a team that swept us out of the playoffs. i'd be happy to have timlin back. always thought he was one of our more likeable players - in spite of being a neo conservative gun lover. on another note, here's another one of my silly 'converting middle infielders to cf' ideas in lew of damon leaving. not sure if it makes a world of sense either but here it goes: arroyo, shoppach, and a couple single a arms for alfonso soriano. texas always needs pitching and they were pretty woeful at catcher as well.. soriano will be a free-agent after next year, we know they were shopping him this season. moving soriano to the outfield actually makes some sense because he can absolutely fly - his speed would help him outrun some mistakes where in the infield it's more about reflex reactions.. he doesn't get on base alot, but i can live with that from a center fielder who goes 30/30. also he's still young, we could lock him up or just keep him for next year, take the draft picks when he goes in free-agency, and hand the job over to david murphy or hanley ramirez. the big problem i see is i'm not sure the texas gm is going to value arroyo any more than we do. realistically we'd probably have to throw in annibal sanchez, lester, or papelbon and i don't particularly want to give up any of those guys. (Comment this)

Written by: Nick at 2005/10/11 - 17:01:08
2 - The other problem with Soriano, beyond the cost in terms of prospects, is that I'm pretty sure he's been adamant about not moving to the OF, so much so that Texas was getting sick of the obstinacy. So, unless we were to get a guarantee that he's willing to do it and not bitch about it, it's not a deal worth making (unless Cora can play CF? No thanks). (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/10/11 - 17:29:59
3 - Not so sure that CHI will be able to dominate LAA the way they dominated us. Five games or even a sweep? Wow. I guess a lot of it depends on the health of Colon. But even if he doesn't return to form, I still see LAA being able to extend this thing. I'm thinking 6, maybe 7 games and they can win it.

Rooting for CHI gives me more trouble because of Ozzie and his big mouth - in fact it would be more of an honor to lose to the eventual champ. But still I don't like Ozzie.

As for Soriano - I would think that is definitely not the best use of Mr. Henry's capital. As noted, he does not get on base. He strikes out a lot. His defense is marginal at best. And next year will be his first on the wrong side of 30. All for the arbitration price of about $10 MM.

I would rather sign Damon for the same $10MM (although the 5 years scares me.) And play Pedroia at 2B. And keep the younger arms.

Or take a flyer on Milton Bradley in CF for a year - maybe the veteran leadership in the Sox clubhouse could keep his head on straight.

Or if you want to make a splash then go after Andruw Jones or Ken Griffey. (Comment this)

Written by: x at 2005/10/11 - 21:36:33
4 - All things being equal, x, I'd agree. But LA's pitching is in shambles right now. Colon's off the roster, who knows what Washburn will do given recovery time, Lackey was on short rest last time out, and as well as Santana pitched last night, who knows?

Damon in 5 years will make Bernie this year look like Tris Speaker. All indicators say he's on his way down, and it won't be pretty. I strongly doubt he'll be back next season. It'll need to be a trade to fill that spot; the FA market is barren. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/10/11 - 23:43:24
5 - Yep. agree on both counts. Just saw the headline that Colon is done, but then again he only pitched one game in the Division Series. I still think the Angels will find a way to win at least two games. Either way I am looking forward to being a baseball fan for (up to) the next 19 days.

As for Damon, what I meant to write was not that five years scares, but that I wouldn't do it. The only way Damon stays is if they get creative in the contract - maybe first three years guaranteed and then vesting based on plate appearances or games played. And that would be if Damon really wants to stay here. Otherwise, sayanora. The only thing I will take exception to is the statement "All indicators say he's on his way down" - I mean the guy was hurt and played through it. Even with the tail off in the second half he matched his career production. But through and through, the trade market is likely the way to go until they can groom Hanley or Pedroia or David Murphy....

Maybe the Sox can drive up the price on Matsui and take a (pseudo) run at him.
 (Comment this)

Written by: x at 2005/10/12 - 00:00:58
6 - That last is the part I disagree with, though. His power is what really separates Damon from the pack and makes him a leadoff guy worth that kind of money, and he didn't have power all year. He's reaching that point where it might be slipping, his health is not great and could easily start getting worse fast, and soon he'll find himself unable to turn on the ball; for a guy that doesn't go the other way real well, that's not a good thing. I could easily see him missing upwards of 20 games next year, with a big slip in BA as some of those singles disappear. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/10/12 - 00:34:58
7 - Yeah see - at first it was all indicators and now I've talked you down to "it might be slipping."

I will concede that he might be slipping but I do think he has a couple of good years in him. This year was an abomination from the very start. The first series in TOR he ran into that new video wall and cut up his arm. Then he injured his shoulder in june diving against (I think) TB. Finally in SEP he hurt his shoulder again diving back into second and ended up taking two cortisone shots. For the most part he played through it all. And after hearing Francona (and others) say all year that he is the toughest guy he has ever seen, I'm inclined to believe them. Plus I don't think Damon has been on the DL in his entire career. His career low in games played is 145 (so maybe he was on the 15 day DL).

I think the Sox should explore a creative contract - three guaranteed years. Fourth year vests with 600 PA in either 2007 or 2008 and fifth year vests with 600 PA in 2008 or 2009. I know that is tricky and you set yourself up for griping about playing time....

 (Comment this)

Written by: x at 2005/10/12 - 01:08:18
8 - I hear Tony womack is available. (Comment this)

Written by: Anonymous at 2005/10/12 - 01:15:01
9 - x - nah, I was being charitable. Here's Damon's SecA over the last 5 years:

.225
.302
.283
.312
.236

His IsoP:

.107
.157
.132
.172
.123

One year jumps out, and that was last year. Spikes in both SecA and IsoP, to go along with a .477 SLG and career high 20 homers. Even his OBP last year was a significant deviation from surrounding years. Damon had an absolute career year last year, after three years of good but not great performance and before one year of very good but then injury-filled performance. He was maybe worth the money he's about to get over the last 4 years - maybe. He certainly won't be worth it over the next 4. For next year, he might be good. I don't think he'll be incredibly impressive, I think he'll miss time, I think he'll continue to see slides in his power and OBP. I think his patience isn't what it used to be either. But even were all of that untrue, will he still be good in 2007? 2008? ages 33 and 34, when even the best leadoff hitters decline? Even Rickey Henderson never had another great year after 34. Is Damon, who had to have three cortisone shots in his shoulder this year and is perenially banged up anyway going to look more like Rickey Henderson at age 34, or like Bernie Williams? I'd bet the latter, by quite a bit. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/10/12 - 03:29:09
10 - But none of it matters unless the Sox offer him four years, because I guarantee you someone out there will. My current bet is actually Seattle. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/10/12 - 03:30:05
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