Notes for Further Study
After last night's post, Reb made an interesting comment that I think is worthy of further study. The comment was as follows:
As for the LOB... it is somewhat depressing. What concerns me about it is that our boys don't seem to be getting the hits off good pitching like they were last year. I don't mind leaving 17 on if we get some others to actually score.
That leads me to a few questions. First, how are the Sox batters vs. the best pitchers? The good hitting vs. good pitching mantra applies here; are the Sox a team that is only great offensively vs. the mediocre pitchers, but fold for the good ones? Or can we dish it out on the best as well? Also, how can we compare several things: the Sox vs. good pitchers and the Sox vs. all pitchers, the Sox vs. good pitchers this year and the Sox vs. good pitchers last year, and the relationship between our hitting, good pitching, and average pitching over both years. I spent a little while today running some numbers from this year, and some of the things I'm seeing are fairly interesting. Tomorrow, I'll do the same for '04, and see what comparisons can be made.
Now, that's obviously not the same as 'rookie' pitchers. The thing I think drives people nuts is that these guys who are fill-ins can sometimes dominate the Sox. Unfortunately, that tends to extend to guys like McCarthy and Santana, who are actually top pitching prospects in their own right. I'm not surprised when a very strong young pitcher dominates the Sox; it's when the fill-in guys do that is really at the root of that. And frankly, I think that happens to every team just as much, if not more, than it does to the Sox.
Plus, it's one of those things that you only remember when it happens; we don't remember the young and/or nobody pitchers that the Sox torch. And there are plenty. (Comment this)
Without having the time to do the full research, I would say the Sox do pretty good. Just off the top of my head I would say the best pitchers this year are Halladay pre-injury, colon, buerhle, johan and either garland (first half much better than second), millwood (stats distorted by serious lack of run support), washburn or silva (both also a bit in the unsupported category).
Against these guys, I know Colon and Halladay each beat us twice (but I don't think Colon dominated, still losses are losses), Johan beat us (although last year he kicked our ass with something like 15 Ks I think right near the trading deadline), Buerhle and Garland, I think we beat each handily, Millwood got a ND in a game we came back and won, and we beat silva, but did not really pound him (the Friday game at Fenway during Mannygate).
So overall, I would say that the Sox do OKAY against the best pitchers (maybe 3.5 runs per game) and absolutely clobber the crap out of tier 2 pitchers - once you get outside the top 10 or so pitchers we feast and score probably at a 6.5 run per game clip. Not sure if the math on that works to get to the approx 5.8 runs per game number.
as for last year versus this - I would think they would be about the same since the offense has been pretty consistent.
Looking forward to the full research. (Comment this)
In other news, I was glad to see the Rays eking out another win. That is, until I flip the channel back and see Lou looking ever closer to killing himself on television. (Comment this)
The second part - whether we did it any better last year - is what I'll try and put together tomorrow. (Comment this)
At least my adhoc commentary attempted to remember specific games. What is going on? I would have thought that now with the thesis over you could pour yourself into this type of research. I'm assuming that lead in "incomplete as it may be..." is a sign that more is coming. (Comment this)