July 06, 2005

Holy Sh*t, Revised

Now that I've had time to think about this, I've concluded that I'm madly in love with the idea.  Here is why.

  • Everyone from Schilling on down seems to have concluded that he's simply not able to start right away.  Either the long layoff, or the surgery or even the original injury means he is limited in the number of innings he is able to throw; he is, according to recaps I've seen of Tito's EEI statement, unable to replicate his delivery over a longer period.  So the Sox are faced wit a simple question:  should they rehab him until he is ready, or should they find a way for him to contribute to the big club despite that?  The answer is pretty obvious.
  • Our closer situation, our bullpen situation, is obviously a mess.  With Foulke first struggling and then sidelined, clearly something major needed to happen.  The question of 'who goes to the pen when Schilling gets back' has been asked all season, and now there's an answer: Schilling.
  • He'd make a damned fine closer. When it gets down to it, you want three things from a closer; exquisite control, the ability to strike people out, and the ability to handle pressure.  Schilling is an embodiment of the first two things, and we've all seen he can handle the third quite well.
  • He's a better option than everyone else.  Timlin has closing experience, but in every number except his ERA he has been shaky this year.  Furthermore, simply shuffling deck chairs won't cut it; the pen needs new bodies.  Combining those two things, there were three options.  The first, borrowing from the high minors, has a fatal flaw:  there's no one in our system right now that could close, or at least none that jump out as both having the ability and having the development.  The second, a trade, is problematic; the market for bullpen arms s maybe as competitive tis year as it has ever been, and the available bullpen aces are highest on that list.  Guys like Wagner, Guardado, even Jose Mesa and Danys Baez will come with very high price tags that Theo has been balking at.  The third, talked about a great deal recently, has been to move a starter into the pen.  Arroyo's name was tossed around, but Bronson doesn't scream successful closer at me.  Wells volunteered, but he screams it even less.  Plus, both of those two have been reasonably successful starters this year, and it would be silly to move either of them into a lower-impact position.  Schilling, as someone who might not be able to handle starting, a who hasn't contributed this year, is an ideal choice.

So, this has been set up as a short term solution. But here's the thing; I'm not convinced Schilling will ever regain full starting strength.  In fact, I'll go so far as to predict that no more than a week after the AS break, he will be cemented as this team's closer, and he will not leave that position for the rest of the year.  And the more I think about it, the more okay with it I become.

Update: As a side note, Manny Delcarmen was promoted to Pawtucket today, which puts an interesting spin on Gammons recent comments (ESPNews) that the Sox might beconsidering bringing up Papelbon as a setup man if he has a few successful AAA outings.  They may be thinking aong the same lines with Delcarmen.  Again, I can't disagree with any of these ideas.  We finally have the chips to invnt our own bullpen help, and it looks like we might very well be using them.

Posted by 12eight at 12:46:09 | Permanent Link | Comments (10) |
Comments
1 - I think it's brilliant. Schilling apparently can't start yet, and they desperately need relievers. It seems to be one of those things where it's outside-the-box thinking that looks obvious in retrospect. If it works, of course, and IMHO it's totally worth a shot. (Comment this)

Written by: Adam at 2005/07/06 - 20:23:28
2 - Absolutely, Adam. I think th FO realized that the market on relievers would be as insane if not moreso than the market for starters this offseason, and it forced them to think creatively. And it may get even more creative soon, if Gammons is ight about the Papelbon promotion to AAA (see the recent update to this post). (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/07/06 - 20:39:12
3 - Re Papelbon and Delcarmen, I haven't been following baseball closely for long enough to have a good feel for this, but based on the Cla experience and that MLB hitters are apparently much better than AAA hitters, I feel like it's hard to be optimistic about rookie pitchers in high leverage roles; I don't have a feel for how often they can do well. I guess there are some who can, but it's probably kind of unpredictable. Jeremeye didn't do too badly when he was thrust into some spot starts, but he wasn't knock-your-socks-off good either. I'm all for experimentation with these guys (especially since it wouldn't take a whole lot to improve on Embree, Foulke, Halama, and Mantei), but I'm a lot more excited about seeing Schilling come out of the pen. (Comment this)

Written by: Adam at 2005/07/06 - 20:58:01
4 - Adam - Meredith didn't do well, but there are plenty of examples of guys who have. Plus, Meredith threw exactly one inning of AAA ball before moving up, PLUS he didn't throw as hard as either Pap or Delcarmen. Having the tpe of velocity they do - both can hit 98 with the fastball - means that they don't have to adjust quite as much to MLB hitters out of the gate, at least not in short stints. Honestly, I think Papelbon especially would make a hell of a pen pitcher right now. I'm all for cautious promotion, but if he shows polish in AAA, absolutely. Make the move. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/07/06 - 21:05:20
5 - I've been continuing to think about Schilling in the bullpen, and I guess the biggest obstacle I have seen mentioned (on Sosh where I don't have posting privileges) is the psychology issue--it gets mentioned a lot in response to people who suggest Timlin should be the closer, and apparently Schilling has a ritual of preparation of sorts on days he's going to pitch. One solution to this is to schedule his pitching days even as a reliever, which should be easy--make them when Miller or Wells or Arroyo is pitching, because they rarely if ever make it into the 7th or 8th--but as for the pressure of closing when the game is on the line, my feeling is that Schilling can handle it. The game is on the line when you are expected to pitch the first 7 just as much as when you are expected to pitch the 9th. (Comment this)

Written by: Adam at 2005/07/07 - 00:36:36
6 - Count me among those that doesn't put that much weigt in the 'closer mentality' deal. Yea, they can't fold under pressure... but hw the hell does a pitcher succeed - in any role - in the majors without being able to handle pressure? Every year, there's some random guy that pops up out of nowhere and is a very good closer, which suggests to me that a lot of guys can have that 'mentality'. The only problem for me is the deal with scheduling innings... but I'm guessing that any talk of that from Theo is just a cautious approach. Mark these words: Curt Schilling will be this team's full-time closer by the end of the month, not to vacate that role before the end of the year (whenever that may be). (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/07/07 - 00:55:25
7 - really have nothing new to add to this discussion other than to say i totally agree...i think schilling would be lights out as a closer..my only comment, is that if he gets to a point where he's healthy enough to start, he should start - because as bad as our bullpen has been, he still has more value as a starter...i'll be dissapointed if they trade one of our top prospects for a reliever..i'm all for giving papelbom and delcarmen a shot..start them in middle relief, and if they succeed move one of them up to a set-up role..they can't be any worse than embree... (Comment this)

Written by: Nick at 2005/07/07 - 01:12:42
8 - Off topic: watching the current game, I absolutely loved Papi's 2-RBI single through the wide-open shortstop position. Take that, f*cking-stupid overshift! Honestly, I'm surprised he doesn't do that more often (i.e. in non-RBI situations). He can hit the other way, but most of his HRs are to CF or RF. (Comment this)

Written by: Adam at 2005/07/07 - 02:25:29
9 - Probably the simplest answer is the right one; he's just not as good at it. In this one, he likely got the right pitch and did it. He has good opposite field power, but you very very rarely see him hit non-flyballs to the left side. I love to see guys beat that shift, though.

Nick - Definitely. If he can get back to the point where he's able to start, they should let him. But I a) get the feeling theydon't think that'll happen, and b) hink that if he has success in the pen and the pen settles down, the Sox will be really hard pressed to mess with it. But we'll see... it will be, in the least, a fascinating experiment. (Comment this)

Written by: Andrew at 2005/07/07 - 03:11:09
10 - cheers to theo for some brilliant thinking-outside-the-box. lateral thinking such as this is indication of true genious. it makes me wonder how long he's had it in mind, and whether perhaps they were discussing this possibility before my very own eyes on Saturday.

I think only time will tell, Andrew, whether he returns to full strength, and also how well he adjusts to the new routine. Curt is a gamer; we all know he loves a challenge. One major adjustment in Curt's case will be strategy. He has always planned for batters based on multiple at-bats... now he will need to plan for them a bit differently, I imagine, and I wonder if this will be easier or more difficult.

I am very much looking forward to seeing this in action. (Comment this)

Written by: Rebecca at 2005/07/07 - 16:28:59
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