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Matt Clement - So far the brightest star of the Sox rotation, Clement has had an interesting tenure in Boston.  After signing a 3-year, $25.5 mil contract a few days before Christmas, the talk on Clement around baseball was that he was a talent, no doubt, but one that for whatever reason 'couldn't win'.  Though his ERA over the last three years was good to excellent at 3.80, he had only a 35-36 record to show for it.  Of course, his run support was the primary culprit, as the Cubs scored pitifully rarely for him (81 runs in 30 starts), but several aspects of his performance seemed to get billing ahead of that fact, most notably his control.  And indeed, Clement's control has been the most troubling aspect of his game so far during his career: early on with San Diego and Florida, he regularly posted BB/9's in the 4's.  Since joining the Cubs - and subsequently the Sox - those numbers have dipped, from 4.51 in 2001 (his last year in Miami) to 3.73, 3.53, and 3.82 in his three years with the Cubs.  Though that's still a relatively high number of walks, it shows a trend toward downward movement (with a hitch last season that can at least partially be explained by a second-half injury).  His BB/9 has lowered to 3.31 on the season so far for Boston.  This improved command has showed in his results*.  Overall, Clement has been an outstanding addition, and the increased run support he is receiving is giving him a W-L record that reflects his performance, at 6-0.  His 3.06 ERA is the best among Sox starters.  Grade: A

Bronson Arroyo - Early in April, as Schilling struggled both on and off the DL, Bronson was this team's ace, incontrovertibly.  In his first 6 starts, he went 4-0 with two ND, struck out 23 in 39.2 IP, and allowed only 14 ER for an ERA of 3.18.  Since then, he has been nearly as good, despite taking the loss last Wednesday at Toronto, in a game where the defense struggled to do... anything at all.  However, I am somewhat worried about Bronson, as - first of all - nothing in his previous seasons tells me he's this good, and second, his K/9 and K/BB are down, despite a decent improvement in BB/9.  To this point, he is being saved by a low BABIP compared to the one he posted last year - which should even out at some point.  The problem with assessing Arroyo, however, is that there is little in the way of MLB experience to compare with - his only recent full season was last year.  So, it's difficult to say whether this is Bronson improving, or whether we will soon see Bronson regressing slightly.  I would bet more on the latter, but I'll take whatever he ca give me at this level of performance, as to date, he's been excellent.  Grade: A-

Tim Wakefield - After a hot start (2-0, 2 ND, 1.79 ERA, 5.81 K/9), Wake has cooled off considerably, his numbers now standing at 4-4, 4.48 ERA, 5.63 K/9.  The reasons for this lie essentially in his HA and BB/9, rather than in any K drop or HR increase.  The knuckler is the most unpredictable of pitches, so it's tough to tell what constitutes a real hot streak or slump for Wake.  The most we can say at this early point is that he showed brilliance in April, and misery in May; the real 2005 Wake is probably somewhere in between.  My prediction for Wake at the start of the season was 12-15 W, with an ERA in the low 4's, and he's not terribly far off that pace now.  We'll see what happens when he starts facing some weaker offenses and the weather heats up, but for now:  Grade: C+

David Wells - He blew my socks off last night, but before the 4th inning or so I was openly calling for his retirement.  I may still be, as 1 game does not a good acquisition make.  His ERA, even after last night's 8.1 IP, 2 ER, near CG outing, still stands at 5.96, and when he's been bad, he's been awful.  Interestingly, his #P/IP and #P/PA are essentially at his recent averages; nevertheless, batters have simply been hitting the ball off him with authority.  His SLGA is higher than any he has ever posted in a full season, with the closest competition coming in 1988 - his first full year in the bigs.  His OBPA is better, but still very much on the high side for his career.  None of this can be said to be particularly surprising - he is 42 years old, after all.  If he can still pitch at even 75% of what he did last night with regularity, he'll stick.  But to this point, he has given me no confidence in his ability to do so.  Grade: D+

Wade Miller - As fantastic as he looked in his first three games, was how terrible he looked in his fourth.  It's still far too early to pass judgment on Miller - even earlier than with the others, as he's pitched so much less and is coming off nearly a year of down time.  When he's right, he's a high #2 level pitcher, but his violent motion has already led to one major injury, and I'm only cautiously optimistic that he can avoid another.  Grade: INC

Curt Schilling - Is he wearing the boot?  Is the boot working?  When is the boot coming off?  How does he feel without the boot?  Has there ever been a pitcher who's career is so dependent on footwear than Curt?  Last ALCS, all the talk - pre-bloody sock - was of a special high-top sneaker that would give him the structure around his tendon sheath that he needed.  Now, all of New England checks the paper every morning for more updates on the Ankle of Destiny.  More will be said about Schilling in the Injuries and Recoveries installment, but for now all we can say is that in the starts he's made this year, he looked bad, and the rest of the time, he's looked injured.  Grade: INC

So, that's the rotation as it stands now, and discounting fill-in starts by Halama and Jeremeye Gonzalez.  The question now is: what's next?

Best Case Scenario:  Clement and Arroyo continue to dominate, locking down our top two and giving this offense a chance to win every night one of them pitches.  Wells makes the adjustments he needs to and looks like what we saw last night.  Miller's last start was just a bump in the road, and he continues to throw decent innings of low-run ball while maintaining his health.  Schilling comes back from the DL fast, and goes back to being the dominant, near-Cy starter we saw last year, allowing Timmy to go do what I think he does best: be a rubber man out of the pen.

Worst Case Scenario: Clement and Arroyo regress to career averages.  For Clement, this means an ERA spike to around 3.60 or 3.70; for Arroyo it means a tumble to 3.70 - 4.00.  Wells looks like the fat slob we saw getting battered around by the league's worst offense, instead of the fat slob we just saw dominating the league's best.  Miller's last start was a portent, and he lands back on the DL in mid-June, to stay.  Schilling's ankle is more badly injured than we realized, and his starts this year are erratic at best, if he makes them at all.  Wakefield continues to post an ERA in the upper 4's, brilliant some nights, but human in most.

Probable Case Scenario: Clement and Arroyo do regress, but not hugely.  Clement's improved control allow him to have the breakthrough season he's needed, and Arroyo cements himself as a solid #3 starter, posting an ERA around 3.70 on the year.  Wells is erratic, but not as bad as he has been, and finishes with around 10 wins and an ERA in the upper 4's.  Miller is solid, but misses some time with a cranky shoulder, monitored carefully by the Sox.  Schilling is able to come off the DL in late June or early July, but isn't himself - he pitches the rest of the year, but with an ERA in the upper 3's or low 4's.  Wakefield has to earn his rotation spot over Wells when Miller is healthy, but sees some pen time when he is not.

Assuming for a moment that the third scenario is the one that plays out, what do we need to do, and more importantly, what can we do?  Acquiring another starter is likely unless we trade one of our current starters, and our most tradeable - Arroyo - is untouchable for a rotation that needs as many solid performers as it can get.  Wells is probably equally untradeable, as he is fat, old, and erratic (not to mention the fact that, should a team want to take him, they'd likely only do so if we pay the lion's share of his salary).  Obviously, Schilling, Wakefield, Clement, and Miller aren't going anywhere.

The SP market is equally barren; looking over the possibilities, the only names that jump out as both potentially available and potentially an improvement are Carlos Zambrano (maturity issues for a team that's headed toward rock bottom), Jason Schmidt (injured and recovering, for a team that requires a geriatrician for a team physician), Kevin Millwood (a stopgap signing that is expendable after the Indians' rough start), Barry Zito, and possibly Kyle Lohse (the most tradeable on a team loaded with pitching in the majors and the minors).  Of those, Schmidt makes me the most excited, because of his track record and because his team is the most in need of young players, and might accept a package of Shoppach and Youkilis - two ML ready young position players at areas of need.  More likely, though, is that we have to stick with who we have.  So let's assume we stay put in the rotation, and talk numbers from this point out.

My prediction for this rotation in the next 4 months would be something along these lines (predicted final stat lines):

Clement -  18-5, 3.60 ERA, 185 K, 7.3 K/9, .240 BAA, 3.4 BB/9
Arroyo - 15-7, 3.95 ERA, 120 K, 5.5 K/9, .245 BAA, 2.1 BB/9
Wakefield - 11-10, 4.65 ERA, 130 K, 6.0 K/9, .265 BAA, 3.5 BB/9
Wells - 7-9, 4.90 ERA, 80 K, 4.7 K/9, .290 BAA, 0.7 BB/9
Miller - 6-3, 4.10 ERA, 120 K, 8.2 K/9, .235 BAA, 2.5 BB/9
Schilling - 7-5, 3.90 ERA, 85 K, 8.4 K/9, .250 BAA, 1.2 BB/9

This is all assuming that: Clement and Arroyo pitch full seasons of 200 or more innings, Wake get a few trips out of the pen but mostly starts, Wells misses at least two more starts due to injury, Miller misses some time to injury, and Schilling returns around the beginning of July and misses one or two starts the rest of the way.  This might be more toward the doom and gloom scenario, but it's cautious, and the result is not terrible.  Once again, Wake's versatility and stamina are going to play a big role.  He is the swing guy here, and the more games Wells, Schilling, and Miller miss the more games Wake will start.  If Wake is solid, and those three pitchers throw along the above lines when they're healthy, it's a serviceable rotation.  But it's a mildly scary one, and the presence of so many injury risks concerns me in the long run.  I'm willing to bet we see a couple more starts by Messrs. Halama and Gonzalez before this season is out; nevertheless, our strength at the top means that we can fight through the chaff and compete with the big teams.  The rotation won't be a strength the rest of the way, but neither will it be a major hindrance.

Tomorrow, I'll look at the bullpen, which could see more major changes than those I looked at for the rotation; trades, trades, trades!

* While looking at Clement's numbers, I noticed some interesting things that would have filled up too much space here.  Hopefully I can lay them out sometime before his next start.